The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis

Highlights
  • The first meta-analysis of the lead-crime hypothesis.
  • Lead pollution increases crime.
  • There is publication bias in the literature.
  • Main estimates after adjusting for publication bias: partial correlation of 0.16 and an elasticity of 0.09
  • In US, estimates imply lead explains 7-28% of the fall in homicide and 6-20% of the convergence urban and rural crime rates.
Abstract

Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime, pooling 542 estimates from 24 studies.